If there is one person in Honduras who is more despised these days than deposed president Manuel Zelaya it is a foreigner who goes by the name of Hugo. We refer here not to the Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez but to U.S. Ambassador Hugo Llorens.
Many Hondurans, including, rumor has it, President Roberto Micheletti, see Mr. Llorens as the principal architect of a U.S. policy that has caused enormous Honduran hardship.
There is a chance that the agreement signed late Thursday between the interim government and Mr. Zelaya will put an end to that suffering. Finally the U.S. and the Organization of American States (OAS) have agreed to step aside and allow Honduran institutions to decide if Mr. Zelaya is to be reinstated. Without international meddling, it is quite likely that Mr. Zelaya will be refused the presidency once more.
Yet many risks remain, starting with the fact that though the U.S. said it was going to butt out of Honduran affairs, old habits die hard. Referring to Mr. Zelaya's bid for reinstatement, Thomas Shannon, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemispheric affairs, said last week, "That's the issue that's the most provocative and the one we will be watching most closely." Mr. Shannon should try watching the World Series instead.
The need to dictate to Hondurans how to run their country has been the problem from the start. The moment the Honduran Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Mr. Zelaya in June for organizing mob violence and attempting to overthrow the constitution Mr. Llorens anointed himself colonial viceroy in charge of imposing U.S. will. Plenty of Molotov-hurling leftists also took Mr. Zelaya's side. But Mr. Llorens staked out a position for the U.S., defending the legitimacy of the erratic former president. The U.S. ambassador used every weapon he could lay his hands on to try to force the country to restore Mr. Zelaya to power.
This violated Honduran sovereignty. But Mr. Llorens's boss back home, Barack Obama, seemed more interested in appeasing U.S. enemies than standing by friends, or even sticking to his pledge not to meddle in other countries' affairs. Mr. Chávez and Fidel Castro were supporting Mr. Zelaya, and Mr. Obama apparently wanted to be part of the gang.
Clearly no one in Washington expected it to be so hard to break the will of Hondurans. That effort became even more embarrassing when zelayistas mounted a campaign of terror, kidnapping and murdering Honduran authorities and their relatives. There were at least three such incidents in two weeks. The terrorists were also sabotaging the country's electricity grid. To avoid further taint, the U.S. sent a delegation to strike the compromise reached late Thursday.
The spin is that Mr. Zelaya will return to power. But the Honduran Congress will decide that, using opinions from the Supreme Court, the attorney general and other legal experts. Since it was the court and Congress that threw Mr. Zelaya out, this is positive. Yet if the court, which has the legal upper hand, stands firm and Congress reverses itself in favor of Mr. Zelaya, there will be a constitutional crisis.
That's not impossible, as the Zelaya reputation for buying votes is legendary. In May, the mayor of Tegucigalpa publicly denounced an offer by the Zelaya government to pay him $15 million to support a referendum on rewriting the constitution. Mr. Chávez has money too, and so do other drug-trafficking terrorist organizations around the region, like Colombia's FARC and numerous Central American gangs. These groups are notorious for infiltrating institutions. Honduras isn't immune.
Yet it is likely that the interim government decided to take the gamble because it believes that the high court and Congress, which both voted overwhelmingly to strip Mr. Zelaya of the office, will stand strong. In return for this risk, it gets U.S. and OAS recognition of the Nov. 29 presidential elections.
What is more, there will be no amnesty for Mr. Zelaya. He already has more than a dozen outstanding arrest warrants against him, and when he steps out of the Brazilian Embassy it is fully expected that he will be detained. The agreement also says that there will be no constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution so as to end presidential term limits.
Unnamed U.S. officials have told the press that Mr. Zelaya probably is coming back, turning up the heat on Honduras's Congress. And the OAS's General Secretary José Miguel Insulza is making noise about returning to Honduras to involve the OAS in Congress's decision. But Mr. Shannon reiterated to me Sunday that the U.S. believes this is now an issue for Honduran institutions to settle. He completely rejected a report in Sunday's El Pais newspaper claiming he is lobbying for votes for Mr. Zelaya's return.
By signing this agreement, Honduras helped Mr. Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton save face. In return, Mrs. Clinton should tell Mr. Insulza to stay out of the country and its affairs. She should also tell U.S. officials to cease and desist with their pro-Zelaya rumors. While she's at it, the secretary could reassign Mr. Llorens. Havana comes to mind as a suitable posting. He will be greeted as a hero by the Castros and will find it easy to continue his friendship with Mr. Zelaya.
(The Wall Street Journal, New York)
