Caracas, 15 December 2012
“It is absolutely necessary that I
undergo surgery within the next days” (“Es absolutamente imprescindible
someterme a una intervención quirúrgica en los próximos dias”), President Chávez informed Venezuelans last Saturday 8 December in a nationwide radio
and TV transmission which started shortly after 9:30 pm. Flanked by National
Assembly President Diosdado Cabello to his right and Vice President Nicolas
Maduro to his left , and surrounded by some of his Ministers, notably his new
Minister of Defense, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, he then went on to anoint
Nicolas Maduro, his Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, as his
political successor, not only to conclude his present mandate ending on 10
January, but also as the PSUV’s candidate when elections will have to be called
should he “not be able to continue as President” (“si…se presentara una
circunstancia sobrevenida que me inhabilite para continuar al frente de la
Presidencia…”). This is his fourth operation since he announced that he had
been struck by cancer.
In his informal remarks to the nation the President took great care
in emphasizing that in July, before he inscribed his candidacy, he insisted he
had undergone again all medical tests, in Venezuela as well as in Cuba, all of
which had proven favourable, and that if anything negative would have surfaced
in those tests, he stated, “be assured that I would not have inscribed and
taken on the presidencial candidacy”. (“insistí en hacerme todos los chequeos
médicos antes de inscribir la candidatura aquí en Venezuela, en Cuba, y bueno,
todos los resultados fueron favorables. Si hubiese surgido algún resultado
negativo en esos exámenes, tengan ustedes la seguridad que yo no hubiese
inscrito y asumido la candidatura presidencial”).
After 7 October again all tests, both in Caracas and Havana, proved
satisfactory, the President continued, but a small inflamation and some pain,
probably as a consequence of the radiotherapy and of the effort during the
campaign, called for more attention. It was then decided to carry out new, more
exhaustive tests, “and well, unfortunately, and so I inform the country, in
this exhaustive revision the presence of malignous cells is detected in the
same affected area, again”. (“Decidimos entonces con el equipo medico adelantar
una revisión, una nueva revisión exhaustiva, y bueno, lamentablemente, así lo
digo al país, en esa revisión exhaustiva surge la presencia, en la misma área
afectada, de algunas células malignas, nuevamente”). For the full text in
Spanish click on http://www.revolucionomuerte.org/index.php/discursos
. For the video
click on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lza6Po_biJw
.
President Chávez
was operated in Havana last Tuesday 11 December, reportedly in
order to excise two vertebrae which had been invaded by the cancer. The operation
lasted six hours, and he has since been in intensive care. After heavy bleeding
his condition was upgraded from “stable” to favourable” this last Thursday, but
the rumour mill had also mentioned septic shock. However, Minister of
Information Villegas informed yesterday evening that Chávez had been able to
speak to his family.
Most agree that Chávez
is not likely to be sworn in a fourth time on 10 January, in which case the
Constitution foresees a new presidential election to be carried out within 30
days of the “absolute absence” of the President of the Republic. In such an
event the President of the National Assembly acts as President of the Republic,
and calls for a presidential election (in which he cannot be a candidate), to
be held within the next thirty days.
The regime is very nervous and has taken, particularly Maduro and
Cabello, to attack the opposition, decrying as hypocricy its respectful
expression of sympathy for the President. It probably would be asking too much
that they now suddenly acted as wise statesmen dedicated to peace and the
common good, as in these 14 years they have been assigned the role of obedient
attack dogs while their Master was the only one free to intelligently reason on
nationwide radio and television on values such as freedom, independence,
solidarity, love and beauty. Maduro did try to correct his first very
aggressive statement, going as far as saying that the larger part of the
opposition’s leadership had been sincere and that he “extended his hand to them”.
This shared attitude of the two new pillars of the regime is likely
to be one the few things on which they agree, but for the time being none of
the two is really in a position to live without the other, at least while
Chávez is still President. Cabello is unlikely to ever be able to make it to
the top, given that he is very unpopular even within the PSUV and has the reputation
of having become immensely rich, but he does have great influence in the Armed
Forces, not only because he is a former military himself and his classmates are
now Generals, but also due to his well-known anti-Cuban stance.
Should Maduro, more simpático
but a dogmatic marxist-leninist and Havana’s man, become President, he probably
would have to dance to Cabello’s tune until he succeeds in turning around the
majority with which Cabello was elected President of the National Assembly last
January 5. The mandate of the President of the Assembly is renewed every year,
and the incumbent can be reelected, but his term can also be cut short. If
Cabello retains the Presidency of the National Assembly in early January he is
likely to remain the real power behind the throne for some time, but probably
not for too long if Maduro is elected to the Presidency and becomes Commander
in Chief of the Armed Forces, as Head of State.
All this has been happening in the week preceding the elections for
Governors to be held tomorrow, 16 December, and in which Henrique Capriles
hopes to be reelected Governor of Miranda. If he is reelected he is likely to
secure his second candidacy to the Presidency, or sink it, in case he loses. If
he loses it is my guess one would have to look to Zulia and Bolivar and see if
Pablo Perez and/or Andrés Velazquez win their elections, and probably also look
at other options, but time will be of the essence and a unitary candidate will
again be necessary very soon, as Maduro will be a tough candidate to beat.
What does seem clear at this time is that the dogmatic, radical
revolution championed by Chávez is
no longer possible. With a difference of only 10% in the last election and in a
continent mainly of democratic nations, probably not even the Great Leader
himself would have been able to see it through. Maduro and Cabello probably
know that they will have to find an accomodation with
the democratic opposition, hopefully even agree on a roadmap back to the
Constitution, if stability is to be secured, urgently so in view of the
economic storm brewing over the horizon.
What the 7 October election also showed is that Chávez might have
succeeded in institutionalizing a clientelistic, populist system, anchored in
the hearts of many, and that the PSUV could be on its way to becoming something
like the Mexican PRI; not only the largest, but also the dominant political
party. If, however, it were to continue to pursue its radical, totalitarian
blueprint and be run by a mediocre leadership, it could also soon become much
more repressive, ultimately risking its break-up and becoming a marginal player(s).
In such a case, the PSUV’s transition to the fringes of politics could
be a matter of years, not months. It is of the essence that the democratic
opposition quickly field a unitary candidate, and that whichever side goes on
to win the presidency organizes, with international assistance, a transparent
transition back to the Constitution. That will only happen once the new presidencial
election has been held and the new President is firmly in power. Don’t hold
your breath, however, not a single medical report on the President’s illness
has ever been published. President Chávez could very well return from Havana on
9 January and smilingly take the oath of office the next day.
